Donald Trump is all over the place. On top
of becoming the new President of the United States, he won this election
in one of the most polarizing ways we have ever experienced. Donald
Trump went from being a real estate tycoon in New York and TV star in LA
to becoming the face of our nation. He won the election. He might have
lost the popular vote, but he won the election. To get 304 votes from
the Electoral College you have to be well-known. You not only have to be well known,
you need lots and lots of money and you need to make yourself a
household name. Donald has a fully operational website, he also is on
every single social media platform I can find on the internet other than
a Tumblr and that place is OVER RUN with Trump content. He uses all the big ones we all instantly think of, Facebook, Instagram,
Twitter and YouTube.
He’s is probably the most viral on Facebook and
Twitter, you can see one of his more talked about tweets above. He has countless ads on YouTube with some varying from 100,000
views to some Ads by his campaign with over 1+ million views. Strangely
enough, his page on YouTube “The Trump Organization” only has about
85,000 subscribers. I think Donald did a good job at making his online presence what it needed to be for him to win the election. I do not think Trump’s current online presence is very good for the country as a whole or for morale
but it sure as hell got him into the White House. I think he should
have made his whole platform and online rhetoric much more sensitive to
people of other nationalities, races and creeds. The posts Trump would
make on Twitter that would target any person or company were the most
viewed or controversial. I will post a few of the more popular ones here
on this blog.
He has historically low approval ratings right now
and I am not shocked in the slightest because the way he conducted his
social media campaign. He was THE protest vote. People who usually voted
third-party either were loyal to Clinton from the get go; or got their
views swayed away to voting for Trump because he “wasn’t a politician”
as all of America would like to use as an excuse. His Twitter does have
26.4 million followers which is impressive, yet his predecessor Barack
Obama has 85.7 million. Instagram is probably Donald’s weakest form of social media sitting at a whopping 6.2 million followers, yet it seems Mr.Trump likes to instagram photos of his old tweets! Somewhat odd in my opinion but
hey, with Donald Trump’s presidency being so new and Obama’s approval
rating being so low at points, I don’t think real Trump supporters need
to worry much. Although the majority of the country doesn’t want Donald
in office, the way he conducted himself through out his campaign was
enough or people to accept him for who he is. The man either knows how
to use internet magic and won’t admit it to us, or he has enough money
to buy internet magic. Regardless, I doubt we’ll know anytime soon. I know I didn't talk about snapchat or his use of it but I couldn't get myself to bring it up without going off on a tangent about the NSA so pardon me for omitting it.
http://fortune.com/2016/03/21/donald-trump-controversial-tweets/
https://www.youtube.com/user/trump
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/BarackObama
Monday, March 13, 2017
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Polling
This election was unbelievable. We had two candidate’s that seemed like choosing between a rock and a hard place. Obviously we are all entitled to our opinions in this country and we have the freedom to share them as such. When I had to do some research about the polls this election, I immediately went to Pew Research, the BBC and used FiveThirtyEight.
PEW
Pew reported some very interesting points about polling that I would have never even thought to have notice if it wasn’t for this article. The first was the massive amount of variety for people to use polling. Older ways such as telephone calls are now being paired with other modes of response. With everyone using social media and smart phones, it seems like the problem isn’t the availability of people sharing their opinion on a poll, it’s the way they’re asking for the response. On the other side, lots of people chalk up the Clinton winning the popular vote but still losing to a polling error that lead her camp astray. State polls are much more inaccurate than national polls, historically at least. When Clinton’s campaign were reporting 70%-99% that she had the victory in the bag, they had to have made more than a few mistakes when gathering data.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Overestimating or underestimating how a candidate will perform on polls make a huge difference. All polls have a winning side unless it is a dead even tie which is unlikely a lot of the time. When pollster’s say that their candidate will perform one way, and are incorrect there are countless other polls that have different estimations that cancel each other out. A big thing pollster’s missed was the amount of support Donald Trump had behind him and how fed up with politician’s the population is.
BBC Poll on Election --------------->
(Clearly showing Hillary winning)
What I would change?
If I were conducting a poll about how an election would turn out things would be a little different. I would try to minimize push polling and ask questions about important hot topic’s and then after they responded I would lay out both sides of that topic and each sides views on it. Polls are important because they give you a glimpse of what voters minds are made up about. If candidate A said something on television about candidate B, or if candidate A takes a particularly strong stance on a topic lots of voters will not wait until the end. Early voting was a big thing this year along with absentee voting.
Analyzing Polls
I think polls limitation’s are exactly what we saw happen in this election. You can have a strong “trend” and think you have the election won (See .Gif below). Does this mean our votes don’t matter? Obviously not, everyone who can vote can make a difference. Polls are polls for a reason, they’re estimations and should not be taken as the truth. That may be the biggest problem for people. Everyone wants to think that if the poll says it, it must be true. But are the powers that be that put Trump in office really the late “shy trump” voters, or was there more at play here. We will never know, all we can know is we have a former television star as our President and things are pretty much ass backwards right now.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/low-marks-for-major-players-in-2016-election-including-the-winner/
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37450661
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
PEW
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHCAoJr49vQR-bXH6E_QK4ByMedJArfBHVQOE_JO_4Jahzeg623z2UeDw6e77PfcF_vmVvtSFxCedCPiGLmd3R0DcY5E54hwAa3zzZV__NqLvz16rjz2h70SwxSbMkEq6LJiSUFaC7vqNv/s320/Screen+Shot+2017-03-02+at+9.45.47+AM.png)
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Overestimating or underestimating how a candidate will perform on polls make a huge difference. All polls have a winning side unless it is a dead even tie which is unlikely a lot of the time. When pollster’s say that their candidate will perform one way, and are incorrect there are countless other polls that have different estimations that cancel each other out. A big thing pollster’s missed was the amount of support Donald Trump had behind him and how fed up with politician’s the population is.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1RdAGuhbvEmVY6-xaHpmlrQblyWmcIdGIJGD0xbNi-seG5fRyj7HpWEREiQ8QenOsshuHwyPoErYcwfIWPFj2ULTTAOLNAUaA6g3L5ucZUtUgJpgrVb6LFwi2OS-80cOCJoiiZA6PmkR0/s400/Screen+Shot+2017-03-02+at+9.45.13+AM.png)
(Clearly showing Hillary winning)
What I would change?
If I were conducting a poll about how an election would turn out things would be a little different. I would try to minimize push polling and ask questions about important hot topic’s and then after they responded I would lay out both sides of that topic and each sides views on it. Polls are important because they give you a glimpse of what voters minds are made up about. If candidate A said something on television about candidate B, or if candidate A takes a particularly strong stance on a topic lots of voters will not wait until the end. Early voting was a big thing this year along with absentee voting.
Analyzing Polls
I think polls limitation’s are exactly what we saw happen in this election. You can have a strong “trend” and think you have the election won (See .Gif below). Does this mean our votes don’t matter? Obviously not, everyone who can vote can make a difference. Polls are polls for a reason, they’re estimations and should not be taken as the truth. That may be the biggest problem for people. Everyone wants to think that if the poll says it, it must be true. But are the powers that be that put Trump in office really the late “shy trump” voters, or was there more at play here. We will never know, all we can know is we have a former television star as our President and things are pretty much ass backwards right now.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/
http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/21/low-marks-for-major-players-in-2016-election-including-the-winner/
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37450661
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/
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